Calculating time...
Canadians are concerned. But they're still spending.
That distinction matters, especially if you're running a small business right now and trying to figure out what the next few months look like.
In the first quarter of 2026, Moneris analyzed aggregated transaction data from across the country and paired it with a national consumer sentiment survey conducted in partnership with Angus Reid. What we found wasn't a story of retreat. It was a story of restraint, and for small businesses, there's a real difference between the two.
Nearly half of Canadians, 49 per cent, describe the economy as struggling. But only 23 per cent say their own finances are in poor shape. That 26-point gap is a key finding in the data. Canadians are anxious about the macro picture while largely holding their own at the household level.
The transaction data reflects this. Total spending across Canada was essentially flat year over year, with transaction volume down just 0.27 per cent and average transaction size up 0.18 per cent. These are not the numbers of consumers withdrawing or giving up. A true pullback would typically show sharper declines in both transaction counts and ticket sizes. Instead, the numbers show that consumers are paying closer attention to where every dollar goes.
Essentials held steady throughout the quarter. Grocery, health, utilities and government services all remained stable. That's expected. What's more telling is where discretionary spending went.
Entertainment and airline spending both grew 11 per cent year over year. Canadians aren't abandoning non-essential spending. They're concentrating it on experiences that feel worth it. When people pull back on impulse purchases but protect spending on travel and entertainment, they're not in survival mode. They're making trade-offs.
For small businesses, that's the insight that matters most. Your customers are still spending. They're just being more deliberate about who earns it.
Alberta and Quebec posted modest year-over-year growth. Parts of the Prairies and Atlantic Canada saw softer conditions. These differences reflect local economic dynamics and don't add up to a national reversal.
The consumer hasn't disappeared. They've raised their standards.
This may not be the moment to compete on price or chase volume with promotions. It's a moment to compete on trust. Small businesses that communicate their value clearly, deliver consistently and make every transaction feel like the right choice will win the trade-offs consumers are actively making.
A few things worth focusing on right now:
Make your value proposition specific: what you sell, who it’s for and why it’s worth it now.
Reduce friction during the purchase decision and checkout: fewer steps, clear fees/returns and fast, reliable payment options. In this environment, investing in customer relationships pays off.
Lean into loyalty: targeted offers and consistent service to encourage repeat visits.
Use promotions strategically: focus on high-intent customers and bundles, not across-the-board markdowns.
Caution isn't the same as closed. The opportunity is still there. It just requires a little more intention to reach it.
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Moneris data disclaimer: These insights are not measures of individual business performance or economic outcomes. Moneris insights are derived from aggregated, anonymized transaction data and are intended to provide directional context on broad Canadian commerce trends.
Angus Reid data disclaimer: These findings are from a survey conducted by Moneris from March 24-31, 2026, among a representative sample of 1,001 online adult Canadians who are members of the Angus Reid Forum. The survey was conducted in English and French. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
In the first quarter of 2026, Moneris analyzed aggregated transaction data from across the country and paired it with a national consumer sentiment survey conducted in partnership with Angus Reid.
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